I think this article kind of misses the point about Black Swans. From my point of view, a black swan is something that could not be predicted and is not repeatable but has a major impact: Microsoft, 9/11, Shakespeare, The Beatles. It is pure meaning but lacks all utility. You can't look at what the Black Swan has done, study it, follow the steps, and expect to arrive at the same place they did. The trouble is that our culture places too much emphasis on Black Swans and makes them the norm. If you were as smart as Bill Gates, you'd be a billionaire; 9/11 was a wake-up call to our nation and we must act before it happens again; if you could write as well as Shakespeare, you would be a genius; if you were as good as the Beatles you would be rich and famous. None of this is true.
So what's useful about Black Swans is that once you recognize them, you can pretty much ignore them. They teach you not to dwell too deeply on things that are strange or beyond your contro.l Instead of cursing your bad luck, you can get on with your life.
