Of course everyone knows about bandwagons. But the recent studies have offered some real surprises. Why does one singer become a superstar, whereas an apparently indistinguishable singer is now waiting tables? Why do some books or movies become blockbusters while equally good ones flop? Observers tend to treat successes and failures as the logical outcomes of well (or poorly) laid plans, or attribute them to large, intrinsic differences among people and products. But cascades, which are unpredictable and not very logical are created by small variations and even coincidences, and these often make all the difference. A few early supporters, or a single favorable review or report, can start a "yes" cascade--just as a few early negatives, or a bad first week, can produce a devastating "no" cascade.The key point for the author is how rational people make irrational decisions by getting caught up in these waves, but for me the idea of cascades sounds a lot like other similarly weird "the world is not what seems" explanations for how the world really works.
This time instead of memes, we have cascades (perhaps waves are replacing particles in this new Einsteinian universe). But this time it's not the meme that's selfish, it's people who are easily swayed by others and have a tendency for group-think. So the answer really does lie in human nature. We believe what other's believe because the pathways are smoother. It gives us a sense of belonging and social approval. But why? And how is it that so many other people are able to short-circuit or ignore those cascades in favor of ideas that barely make a ripple?
